Investing in public markets
This page has been a living document since 2022. Drag the timeline to watch it — and my thinking — change over time.
The process I run today: a universe of ~500 Canadian microcaps, signals read off every release, and a rent-vs-own book where each name needs a falsifiable thesis or a dated catalyst — sized by conviction, and sold only on thesis, the sizing gate, or a better idea.
Sourcing
My universe is the 500 Canadian companies under $3B market cap with revenue and positive gross margins. I read every press release from these companies and look for signals (e.g., new management, acquisitions, NCIB announcements, spin-offs, insider buying, strategic reviews).
Watchlist
I'm looking for exciting business models at attractive valuations with easy to define catalysts not yet understood by the market. I look at trends in price, shares, margins, income statements, EV-to-sales-and-EBITDA. I read the last 5-10+ news releases and search for a pattern where news flow is appreciating faster than the share price.
Research
I download and read the latest interim and annual reports, shareholder letters, inflection documents (CEO change, acquisition, etc.), IPO or PP prospectus. I want to understand the management, business model, risks, industry, financials, valuation, and catalysts and answer:
- How strong and enduring is the earning power? Can the company predictably grow its revenues 20%+ per year? Is the company's TAM, team, and margins expanding?
- How is the management team incentivized and how good is their track record?
- What's the market's view vs my view? Can I be 5x right or only 25% wrong (asymmetry)?
Buying
I start my buying checklist in the sourcing, watchlist, and research parts of the process. To add to it, I need to confirm the company outranks my other ideas on expected return and probability, and offers higher upside and/or lower risk. It needs to be uncorrelated from the rest of my portfolio and I need to be able to write a "Pre-Mortem" about how things could go wrong. I separate opportunities into OWN or RENT.
| Quadrant | What it is | Sell rule | Sizing | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OWN + edge | The real alpha is compounders found early | Lean to never sell; trim only when size gets too big | Starter 6–8%, Add 10-15%, Max 40% | Relaxed while thesis holds |
| RENT + edge | Highest-IRR hunting ground — special-sits nobody covers | Leave when catalyst closes or clock breaks | Starter 3–5%, Add to max 8-12%, Margin of safety required | Ruthless (6-mo dead-money) |
| OWN + passenger | Riding passenger with the best operators (CSU/FFH/etc) | Benchmark vs an index, not other microcaps | Starter 3–5%, Max 5-6% | Sell if management falters - sell whenever, fund ideas from here |
| RENT + passenger | No edge, widely-covered | Avoid | — | — |
Selling
I sell or trim for three reasons:
- Broken thesis or catalyst: if the thesis breaks, or a rent's catalyst has played out, I sell — and if six months pass with no thesis progress on a name that should be working, I re-evaluate. I’m much more willing wait on owns than rents.
- Right-sizing: if a single illiquid name grows beyond ~40%, I trim the excess back toward the ceiling and keep the core. I consider this right-sizing, not selling a compounder.
- Better idea: if I find a higher-ranked idea in the process, and I don’t have any cash, I trim or sell my worst idea to fund it.
Mindset
The top priority is generating returns and managing risk - I don’t need to be right or look smart. On position check-ins, I try to kill my ideas and avoid confirmation bias and sunk cost fallacy. I share ideas liberally, constantly building a network of other analysts looking to do the same. I journal decisions, ideas, learnings, and next steps. Process over picks, the right balance is high analytical turnover and low portfolio turnover. It only takes one good idea per year - I need to size my best ideas accordingly. For rents, some of the rules soften, and I need to be willing to adapt and trim faster whenever I’m proven wrong.